Identifying patients at increased risk of non-ventilator-associated pneumonia on admission to hospital: a pragmatic prognostic screening tool to trigger preventative action
Wilson, J Griffin, H Görzig, A Prieto, J Saeed, K Garvey, M I Holden, E Tingle, A Loveday, H
Wilson, J
Griffin, H
Görzig, A
Prieto, J
Saeed, K
Garvey, M I
Holden, E
Tingle, A
Loveday, H
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2023-10-10
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Abstract
Background: Non-ventilator healthcare-associated pneumonia (NV-HAP) is an important healthcare-associated infection. This study tested the feasibility of using routine admission data to identify those patients at high risk of NV-HAP who could benefit from targeted, preventive interventions.
Methods: Patients aged ≥64 years who developed NV-HAP five days or more after admission to elderly-care wards, were identified by retrospective case note review together with matched controls. Data on potential predictors of NV-HAP were captured from admission records. Multi-variate analysis was used to build a prognostic screening tool (PRHAPs); acceptability and feasibility of the tool was evaluated.
Results: A total of 382 cases/381 control patients were included in the analysis. Ten predictors were included in the final model; nine increased the risk of NV-HAP (OR between 1.68 and 2.42) and one (independent mobility) was protective (OR 0.48; 95% CI 0.30-0.75). The model correctly predicted 68% of the patients with and without NV-HAP; sensitivity 77%; specificity 61%. The PRHAPs tool risk score was 60% or more if two predictors were present and over 70% if three were present. An expert consensus group supported incorporating the PRHAPs tool into electronic logic systems as an efficient mechanism to identify patients at risk of NV-HAP and target preventative strategies.
Conclusions: This prognostic screening (PRHAPs) tool, applied to data routinely collected when a patient is admitted to hospital, could enable staff to identify patients at greatest risk of NV-HAP, target scarce resources in implementing a prevention care bundle, and reduce the use of antimicrobial agents.
Citation
Wilson J, Griffin H, Görzig A, Prieto J, Saeed K, Garvey MI, Holden E, Tingle A, Loveday H. Identifying patients at increased risk of non-ventilator-associated pneumonia on admission to hospital: a pragmatic prognostic screening tool to trigger preventative action. J Hosp Infect. 2023 Dec;142:49-57. doi: 10.1016/j.jhin.2023.09.020. Epub 2023 Oct 10.
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