The risk and predictors of mortality in octogenarians undergoing emergency laparotomy: a multicentre retrospective cohort study

Abstract

Objectives: This study aims to evaluate the risk of postoperative mortality in octogenarians undergoing emergency laparotomy.

Methods: In compliance with STROCSS guideline for observational studies, we conducted a multicentre retrospective cohort study. All consecutive patients aged over 80 with acute abdominal pathology requiring emergency laparotomy between April 2014 and August 2019 were considered eligible for inclusion. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality, and the secondary outcome measures were in-hospital mortality and 1-year mortality. Statistical analyses included simple descriptive statistics, binary logistic regression analyses, and Kaplan-Meier survival statistics.

Results: A total of 523 octogenarians were eligible for inclusion. Emergency laparotomy in octogenarians was associated with 21.8% (95% CI 18.3-25.6%) 30-day postoperative mortality, 22.6% (95% CI 19.0-26.4%) in-hospital mortality, and 40.2% (95% CI 35.9-44.5%) 1-year mortality. Binary logistic regression analysis identified ASA status (OR, 2.49; 95% CI 1.82-3.38, P < 0.0001) and peritoneal contamination (OR, 2.00; 95% CI 1.30-3.08, P = 0.002) as predictors of 30-day postoperative mortality. The ASA status (OR, 1.92; 95% CI 1.50-2.46, P < 0.0001), peritoneal contamination (OR, 1.57; 95% CI 1.07-2.48, P = 0.020), and presence of malignancy (OR, 2.06; 95% CI 1.36-3.10, P = 0.001) were predictors of 1-year mortality. Log-rank test showed significant difference in postoperative survival rates among patients with different ASA status (P < 0.0001) and between patients with and without peritoneal contamination (P = 0.0011).

Conclusions: Emergency laparotomies in patients older than 80 years with ASA status more than 3 in the presence of peritoneal contamination carry a high risk of immediate postoperative and 1-year mortality. This should be taken into account in communications with patients and their relatives, consent process, and multidisciplinary decision-making process for operative or non-operative management of such patients.