Survival and Decision-Making in Patients Turned Down for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair: A Retrospective Study with Focus on COVID-19 Impact

Abstract

To investigate and analyse various aspects related to patients who have been placed on a "turn-down list" for elective or emergency repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA). This retrospective study analysed data from the Black Country Vascular Network (BCVN). Multidisciplinary team (MDT) meetings assessed AAA patients referred through National Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Screening Programme (NAAASP)or directly to vascular surgery. Patients considered unfit for intervention were added to a prospectively kept turndown list. Survival and cause of death data were collected, along with cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) results and British Aneurysm Repair (BAR) scores for some patients. The study covered a period from January 2015 to May 2023. After exclusions 247 (16%) patients were placed on the turndown list with a median age of 85 years (IQR 8 years). The mortality of turndown cases on medical grounds was 74.1%. Survival was significantly higher for patients who completed CPET before being turned down (p = 0.004). Gender analysis revealed a higher proportion of females being turned down compared to males (p = 0.044). COVID-19 led to a notable reduction in the number of discussed cases and interventions, while the turndown rates remained consistent. Survival at one year in turndown patients was 66%, at three it was 29%, at four years it was18% and at 7 years it was 5%. Most patients whose cause of death was known died of respiratory complications (30%) or malignancy (19%). BAR scores and aneurysm size were not significant predictors of mortality. Patients on the turndown list have a substantial mortality rate. A significant proportion of female patients were being turned down compared to men and the reasons for this are not clear. Patients who completed CPET before being turned down had a longer survival time. While COVID-19 impacted healthcare services reducing the number of interventions, it did not influence turndown decisions. The study showed that the cause of death for a significant number of patients was respiratory complications or malignancy.