Evolving trends and future demands in ENT procedures : a nationwide 10-year analysis

Abstract

Objective: This study aims to investigate the trends in otology, rhinology, and head and neck (H&N) operations over the past decade in England. These trends will allow for predictive modelling to forecast the demand over the coming years to aid workforce and resource planning in ENT. Methods: Hospital Episode Statistics data were extracted between April 2012 and April 2023. A total of 121 otology, 114 rhinology, and 122 H&N procedure codes were included. Correlation and linear regression analyses were conducted to examine trends and produce a forecast model for the volume of operations. Results: A gradual upward trend in the volume of operations was observed in rhinology, with a positive correlation coefficient (R = 0.74). In contrast, otology (R = -0.67) and H&N (R= -0.75) showed negative trends, indicating a moderate decline in operational volumes over time. The COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted operating activity in rhinology and otology. To address the backlog and reach the pre-pandemic forecasted levels within the next five years, surgical capacity must increase by an additional 33,807 rhinology 25,486 otology, and 10,300 head procedures per year in England. Conclusions: This analysis highlights a need for prioritization and expansion of the ENT workforce and resources to manage the current backlog and anticipated increase in demand over the next five years.